Tobiloba Adejumo
Scientist
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Tobiloba Adejumo
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Nobody in that group chat has inside information

There is a principle called Alder's Razor. It says if a claim cannot be tested or proven wrong, it is not worth arguing about. A mathematician named Mike Alder came up with it, and honestly, I wish I had found it sooner.

Right now there is a proclamation affecting immigration cases from 39 countries. People I care about are caught in it. And naturally, there are group chats, forums, and threads full of people debating what is going to happen next.

"They are going to lift the hold in March." "No they will not, the election is coming." "I spoke with a lawyer and they said the proclamation is ending soon." "My friend got their OPT approved." "Mine got denied." Back and forth. Every day. Confident opinions from people who have no more information than the rest of us.

None of it can be tested. None of it can be verified. Nobody in that group chat has inside information. Nobody knows what is going to happen or when. And yet people will argue about it for hours like they are presenting evidence in court.

That is exactly what Alder's Razor is designed to cut. If there is no experiment you can run, no evidence you can point to, no way to prove your claim right or wrong, then the argument is empty. You are just trading guesses back and forth and calling it analysis.

It is like arguing about whether pineapple belongs on pizza. There is no test that settles it. You just let it be.

I watched this play out up close. I would read those threads and feel my chest tighten. My mood would shift based on some stranger's speculation. And for what? Nothing changed. Nobody's case moved faster because someone in a forum said it would.

And that is the part that got me. You give yourself high blood pressure over something nobody can prove. You waste your energy, your sleep, on problems that have no testable answer. If you cannot test it, why are you losing peace over it?

Now I apply Alder's Razor before I engage. Can this be tested? Is there real evidence on either side? If not, I keep scrolling.

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